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Commodities, Inc. Research Department. Please view our Risk Disclaimer. Free in-depth analysis of the Euro FX futures market written by a professional Euro FX trader.
Commodity trading is not suitable for everyone. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Van Commodities, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Van Commodities, Inc. Research Department. Please view our Risk Disclaimer.
Free in-depth analysis of the Euro FX futures market written by a professional Euro FX trader.
April 14, 2013
Euro Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
The Euro future (E6M13) rally, over the past seven trading days, had several factors leading to buyers overwhelming the E6M13 bears. After hitting a low at a 1.2750 on the back of worries over the Cypriot banking crisis, E6M13 received buying support from several US economic statistics which came in below analyst expectations. The weaker than expected data included US employment and manufacturing data, a week ago this past Friday, as well as weaker than expected Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence statistics on April 12. E6M13 may start to run into resistance not too far above the intraday high at 1.3145, on Thursday.
E6M13 is overbought based on several short term momentum indicators. Over the near term initial resistance for E6M13 may come in at 1.3125-1.3170, with stronger resistance at 1.3240. Initial support for the currency pair may come in at 1.2948-1.2990, with stronger support at 1.2850-1.2902
March 26, 2013
Euro Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
Concerns about the actions of depositors on the reopening of Cypriot banks on Thursday, in reaction to the bailout agreement between the Cypriot Government and the Troika (European Union, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund) may continue to undermine the Euro Currency future (E6M13). Comments yesterday by the new President of the Eurogroup (Eurozone Finance Ministers), Jeroen Dijsselbloem, may result in renewed anxiety from depositors in weak Eurozone banks. This could continue to undercut attempted rallies in E6M13.
E6M13 is oversold based on several short term momentum indicators. The trend of the currency appears to be down over the intermediate term, but volatility may increase over the next several days. Over the near term initial resistance may come in at 1.3060-1.3130 and stronger resistance at 1.3160-1.3270. Support may come in at 1.2738 and then 1.2526.
March 03, 2013
Euro Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.
It appears that the investment community’s longer term concerns about Euro Zone cohesion have been reignited. The renewed political uncertainties for many of the countries within the Euro Zone, to stick with austerity measures, appears to be manifest in the most recent outcome for Italian elections. With data continuing to show economic stagnation and stubborn fiscal imbalances, for many of the member states, anxiety over the ability for Euro block nations to work through their financial and fiscal imbalances may be off the back burner and back on to the front page.
The Euro currency, basis the March future (E6H13) has lost roughly five and half percent since February 01. The move down over the past month followed a thirteen percent appreciation from July 24 to February 01. E6H13 had become overbought on the move from the 1.2090 intraday low based on several momentum indicators on both short and intermediate term studies.
The reversal to the downside over the past several weeks appears to be more than just a move to work off the previously overbought condition. The underlying economic and political fundamentals for the Euro Zone seem to limit significant upside potential for the currency. Although E6H13 has become oversold based on several short term momentum indicators, the Euros intermediate term trend appears to be down. E6H13 may find some near term support, for a limited bounce at 1.2850-1.2905. Initial resistance should come in at 1.3150-1.3255 and stronger resistance at 1.3300-1.3350.
February 03, 2013
Euro Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
It appears that over the past six months the “Currency War,” manifest in the expansive Quantitative Easing programs by several industrial nation’s Central Banks, has shifted currency trader’s interest from the prior multi year revaluation of the Japanese yen to strengthening the Euro currency (E6H13). The roughly fourteen percent appreciation of the Euro future (E6H13), over the past six months, is almost the mirror image of the roughly seventeen percent depreciation of the Japanese Yen future (J6H13).
The revaluation of E6H13, over the past six months, may have a deleterious affect on the Eurozones manufacturing and export sector in the future. Investors will be looking to the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting February 07 for any indication of policy initiatives that may weaken E6H13 prospectively. Although investors expect no change in monetary policy; traders will be watching the headlines on Thursday to see if Mr. Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), will hint at the possibility of any future interest rate changes at his press conference.
E6H13 is overbought based on several momentum studies on both short and intermediate term time frames. The currency future should find significant selling at 1.3835-1.3940 and then at 1.3960-1.4000.
December 6, 2012
Euro Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
Over the past two days the Euro Currency December Future (E6Z12) has dropped close to one and quarter percent from its intraday high December 05, 2012, to close at 1.29640 December 06, 2012. The European Central Bank (ECB) announced no new monetary actions at the conclusion of their policy meeting today but Mario Draghi, the ECB President, reduced economic forecasts for this year and 2013. Mr. Draghi also projected lower inflation expectations for the Eurozone. The market reaction to the updated forecast resulted in knee jerk selling on the thought that the ECB may consider future interest rate reductions.
E6Z12 traded up over three percent since November 13th and the currency is overbought based on several short term momentum indicators. There is a reasonable possibility that the low of July 24, 2012 at 1.20690 may be a low for the currency on a longer term basis. In the near term a pullback for E6Z12 can be expected. Initial resistance could come in at 1.2995-1.3020 and then 1.3040-1.3050. Over the near term some support may come in at 1.2750-1.2820. E6Z12 would become more interesting from the buy side in the 1.25-1.2620 area.
Van Commodities, Inc., Euro Futures Trader - April 24, 2011
The Euro Currency futures contract, basis the June contract (ECM12) strengthened today after: Spain, Italy and the Netherlands sold bonds achieving outcomes within market expectations. Some of the nervousness created yesterday resulting from news about the first round of the French presidential election, political uncertainty in the Netherlands and weak Markit PMI data for Europe were put aside once the bond auctions were over.
From the middle of January 2012, ECM12 has been range trading between 1.2640 and 1.3500. The range has tightened since the end of February and the triangle formation created, appears to be reaching a potential breakout point. Several moving averages are clustered from 1.3140 to 1.3200 and the descending triangle pattern demonstrates a market waiting for some fundamental news to get the currency moving. A move above 1.3250 would signal a breakout in the Euro currency for many traders while a move below 1.2980 would signal a breakdown.
The catalyst to move ECM12 may be the outcome of the FOMC meeting April 25, 2012 and the economic projections made by the FOMC, along with Mr. Bernanke’s press conference. If the Federal Reserve’s economic projections describe a firmer US economic trajectory with no further QE or iterations of Operation Twist that may result in a more bullish dollar outlook.
February 8, 2012
Currency Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.
The currency markets endured another indecisive day between the Troika and the Greek Government. Finding agreement to the negotiations for furthering the debt swap and Greek Bailout Plan appear to be as illusive as finding the Holy Grail. The wage and pension reductions that the Greek public faces and therefore the possible risk for Greek politicians, who potentially agree to the negotiations, appear to be an encumbrance to closure of any deal since forthcoming elections could be as soon as April. The Euro currency, basis the March futures contract, continued trading to the upside-climbing its wall of worry.
The EUR/USD, basis March futures, secured a new intraday high in the move at 1.3290 since bottoming out on January 13, 2012 at a closing low of 1.2672. The Euro has now recovered 38.2 percent of the move from the 1.4231 high to the 1.2628 low at 1.3240, a Fibonacci number that many technical traders look to for guidance. The Euro is looking somewhat overbought and there should be resistance to further Euro headway at 1.3300, where there is trendline resistance and between 1.3364 a 50 percent retracement and 1.3430 the 100 dma basis March futures.