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Canadian Dollar Futures

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Free in-depth analysis of the Canadian Dollar futures market written by a professional Canadian Dollar trader. 

March 04, 2013

Canadian Dollar Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.

The Canadian Dollar future (D6H13) has traded down five percent since hitting an intraday high of 1.01750 on January 11th. D6H13 has been undermined by several factors over the past several weeks including weak crude oil prices, a major export for the country, and concerns about the overall strength of the Canadian economy.  

Traders will be watching for the outcome of the Bank of Canada (BOC) meeting on March 6th, for any possible policy changes. With data over the past several weeks pointing to slower economic growth in Canada some analysts think the BOC may reverse their interest rate tightening bias. Currency traders will also be watching for Canada’s Employment and Unemployment data on March 8th. 

D6H13 is oversold based on several momentum indicators on both short and intermediate term time frames. Over the near term the currency should be able to see a tradable bounce. Initial support may come in at .9684-.9705. If the lows of last Friday do not hold next support comes in at .9440-.9610. Initial resistance may come in at .9785-.9860 with stronger resistance at .9920-.9965.

February 4, 2012

Canadian Dollar Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.

The Canadian Dollar future (D6H13) appears to be trading in a 300 plus point range of .9880-1.0180, in the near term. Over the remainder of the week D6H13 traders will take note of several economic data points, which should give a fairly broad view of the Canadian economy.

 

On Wednesday the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for January will be released; followed by Building Permits and the New Home Price Index for December, on Thursday. Friday’s economic news will include Employment Participation and Unemployment levels, Housing Starts, and International Merchandise trade.

 

D6H13 became oversold a week ago, after a ten day sell off that took the currency down roughly three percent from an intra high on January 11 of 1.01750. Momentum indicators on both intermediate and short term studies are in relatively neutral positions. D6H13 traders will probably take their direction based on whether global financial markets trade with a risk on or risk off basis until Friday’s employment and unemployment data.

 

D6H13 had a negative bias today and may have begun to reverse the rally of the past five days. Initial resistance may come in at 1.0022-1.0032 and further resistance at 1.0078-1.0112. Initial support may come in at .9837-.9900.

January 2, 2013

Currency Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.

The risk on day in financial markets today was a continuation of the rally which started mid morning December 31, on thoughts a deal on the Fiscal Cliff was probable over the New Year Holiday. Although there are several steps left in the US budget and debt ceiling negations to follow over the next three months; traders took the resolution over New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day to Bush era tax cuts as a spark to rally risk assets further. The resolution of one leg of the Fiscal Cliff soap opera, during the New Year period, resulted in gap up move in several risk on trading vehicles including the front month Canadian Dollar future (CDH13). CDH13 was also supported today by news that the RBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed a marginal improvement in Canada’s business environment.

CDH13 ended the previous week in a technically oversold condition based on several momentum studies on both short and intermediate studies. CDH13 appears to have more upside potential over the near term. Initial support should come in at 1.0080-1.0100 and further support at 1.0060-1.0070.  Initial resistance for the move may come in at 1.0220-1.0260 and then 1.0320-1.0390.

Currency Futures Broker, November 18, 2012

The Canadian dollar futures, basis the December contract (D6Z12) had an outside reversal day to the upside on Friday. The price action was positive and reflected the late day reversal in the US stock market. Positive spin to remarks by varied political figures upon the conclusion of President Obama’s meeting with Congressional leaders, over dealing with the Fiscal Cliff resulted in a flurry of short covering. Since the middle of September D6Z12 has lost about four percent of its value versus the US dollar, on concerns over a slowing global economy.

 

D6Z12 is moderately oversold on several momentum indicators on both short and intermediate time frames. Going into a shortened US Thanksgiving holiday week it would not surprise to have D6Z12 trade to the upside. The currency has moved into an area of support with the 200 day moving average at .9970 and a fifty percent retracement at .9952 from the June 04, 2012 low to the high on September 14, 2012. If the lows of Friday do not hold, the next support should come in around .9850. Over the short term, initial resistance should come in 1.0050-1.0120 and then 1.0150-1.0200.

Canadian Dollar Futures Broker, May 16, 2012

The Canadian dollar futures contract basis June (CDM12) has fallen close to four percent since April 27. The currency has taken its direction from the risk off trade with gathering evidence of slowing global economic growth, renewed concerns over the Greek debt/political impasse, increasing worries about the status of Spanish and Italian banks and today’s economic data indicating future potential weakness in the U.S. manufacturing and employment sectors.

Although CDM12 is oversold based on several momentum studies, the currency breached a significant trendline on last night’s close and continued to trade down in today’s session.

CDM12 may find some support in the 9775-9735 area due to its oversold condition. Initial resistance should come in around 9895-9915 and stronger selling should appear if CDM12 trades up to 9950-9990.       

February 2, 2012

Commodity Broker, Van Commodities, Inc. 

The March Canadian Dollar futures contract is trading right around parity (1.00) versus the US Dollar and appears to be technically overbought. The Loonie, as it is referred to in the forex market, is trading at the top end of a range that has been in place since October of 2011 at 1.0075, it is up against its 200 day moving average around 1.0020 and many momentum studies are in overbought territory.  

Canadian GDP numbers for November, released on 01-31-12, were weaker than expected falling 0.1 percent, after being little changed in October according to Statistics Canada in Ottawa. The drop was due to maintenance shutdowns by crude oil producers and lower natural gas extraction. Expectations were for growth of plus 0.2 percent. The report is leading to reduced expectations of fourth quarter GDP growth. Employment figures for Canada will be released on 02-03-12 and economists expect about 24,500 jobs were created during January.