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Swiss Franc Futures

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Free in-depth analysis of the Swiss Franc futures market written by a professional Swiss Franc trader.

December 09, 2012

Swiss Franc Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.

Last week’s news that Credit Suisse would charge its institutional clients to hold Swiss franc deposits resulted in the Swiss franc selling. Thoughts that more banks may impose negative interest rate on Swiss franc deposits led Foreign Exchange (FOREX) traders to sell the currency down to its lowest levels against the Euro in three months.

 

Next week currency traders will be watching for any news out of The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) press conference at the conclusion of their monthly monetary policy meeting, December 13, 2012. The market consensus is for no change in policy, but investors will be watching to see if the move by Credit Suisse last week was a prelude to any policy change by the SNB.

 

The Swiss Franc future (S6Z12) became overbought based on several short term momentum indicators early last week. The outside reversal week on charts, basis the weekly nearest futures chart, along with the rollover of daily momentum studies should result in further selling of S6Z12 on any strength. Initial resistance should come in at 1.0726-1.0750 and then 1.0770. Initial support may come in at 1.0520-1.0570 followed by 1.0380-1.0465.

April 3, 2012

Currency Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.

After the Swiss Franc Futures bottomed in November 2008, basis the weekly futures chart at.8182- after the collapse of Lehman and the flight to the dollar ended, the Swiss Franc subsequently rallied over the next several years by 73 percent from the lows of .8182 to 1.4167, basis the weekly futures chart. The currency topped out at 1.4167 in August 2011, basis the weekly futures chart. At that time the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprisingly cut interest rates from 25 basis points to as close to zero as possible and stated they would add however many Swiss Francs were needed to money markets to stop the Swiss Franc from appreciating. Since the top in the currency verse the dollar in August 2011, the Swiss Franc futures, basis the weekly futures chart fell from the high in August 2011 at 1.4167 to the retracement low of 1.0490, which was roughly a Fibonacci ratio of 61.8 (from low in November 2008 to high in August 2011) and where the currency found support.  

The June Swiss Franc Futures contract (SFM12) found good support at 1.0490 at the beginning of January and bounced back to 1.1213 at the end of February, close to a 20 percent bounce from the drop that started at 1.4072 high to the 1.0490 low. The currency presently is somewhat overbought, based on several momentum studies and had a reversal day on Monday, closing at 1.0984 today. It appears that SFM12 wants to head lower. Minor support may initially hold at 1.0800-1.0750. If U.S. economic numbers continue to improve and the SFM12 can not hold support at around 1.0650 the SFM12 may retest it s lows from the beginning of January 2012.