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Nasdaq 100 Futures

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Free in-depth analysis of the Nasdaq 100 futures market written by a professional Nasdaq 100 trader.

April 7, 2013

Nasdaq Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.

The Nasdaq future (NQM13) sold off roughly three percent last week on weaker than expected US economic data. The statistics which manifest an unexpectedly tepid economic environment, at best, included; the Institute of Supply Managers Indices, the weekly unemployment claims data and the Nonfarm Payroll statistics on Friday. Next week investors will contend with several speeches by Federal Reserve members, the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market (FOMC) policy meeting several weeks ago, the start of first quarter corporate earnings reports, and several economic data points. The statistics reported throughout next week include the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Optimism Index on Tuesday, to be followed by the weekly unemployment claims data on Thursday, and Retail Sales, PPI and Michigan Consumer Confidence data on Friday.

NQM13 displayed an overbought condition based on several short and intermediate term momentum indicators on April 02 when the contract traded at an intraday high of 2823.00. The reversal on a weekly chart may be indicative of further weakness over the coming days and weeks. Initial resistance may come in at 2770.00-2780.00 with stronger selling at 2791.00-2802. On a short term trading basis NQM13 may find day trading support at 2710.00-2737.00 and further support at 2656.00-2685.00. Many investors have been expecting a correction in the stock market and if it has begun NQM13 may need to fall to 2500.00-2550.00 before support is found.

 

January 15, 2013

Nasdaq Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.

The NASDAQ 100 future (NDH13) closed down on the day even though the other two major futures indices closed in positive territory. NDH13 has lagged both the S&P and Dow futures since all three indices made lows on November 16, 2012. The other two futures contracts have challenged their previous contract highs whilst NDH13 is still roughly four percent short of its previous contract highs. NDH13 will contend with several pieces of economic data over the next three days as well as several corporate earnings reports from companies included in the index.

 

Economic data to be reported Wednesday include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. The week will close out with Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the Philadelphia FED Index on Thursday, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data on Friday.

 

The three companies included in NDH13 to release earnings this week are eBay (EBAY) on Wednesday, and Intel (INTC) and Xilinx (XLNX) on Thursday.

 

NDH13 is overbought based on short term momentum indicators. The contract may find initial resistance at 2750.00-2764.00 and further selling pressure at 2780.00-2820.00. Initial support may come in around 2660.00- 2670.00 and then 2610.00-2635.00.

December 09, 2012

Nasdaq Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.

Stock indices in the US were mixed on December 07, 2012 with the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 up on the day, whilst the technology based NASDAQ 100 futures contract (NDZ12) closed down 18 points. Economic data released on Friday included Non Farm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The headline NFP and unemployment (UE) data were better than the market expected whilst Consumer Sentiment fell considerably short off the consensus. The fact that the lower level of UE was due to a drop in the size of the labor force and that Consumer Sentiment was weaker than expected, did not appear to concern financial markets overall.

 

Next week the market will be watching the conclusion of the Federal Reserves (FED) Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) final meeting for the year on December 12, 2012. Traders and investors will be interested in how the FED plans to deal with the end of Operation Twist (OT), December 31st and whether the FED will announce a strategy to further expand the Central Bank’s Balance Sheet. A decision by the FOMC to not extend OT or announce some alternative Quantitative Easing plan would be a negative for the stock market.

 

Stock market traders will continue to watch the developing negotiations over the Fiscal Cliff as well as several economic data points to be released throughout next week. The statistics include; The National Federation of Independent Business Optimism Index(NFIB), International Trade Balance, Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, Business Inventories, Consumer Price Index, Markit’s Manufacturing PMI, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.

NDZ12 reversal day down on Friday indicates the potential for further selling at the start of next weeks trade. Based on short term momentum indicators NDZ12 became overbought at the beginning of last week. Intermediate term indicators are in the process of working of an oversold basis. Short term support may come in around 2570.00-2595.00 and then 2533.00-2543.00. Over the short term initial resistance may come in 2650.00-2660.00 and then 2670.00-2680.00.

April 16, 2012

Index Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.

US stock indices have had a tough two week period since the beginning of April after the tremendous multi month run. The announcement of coordinated Central Bank dollar swaps agreements in November and the follow up LTRO announcement by the ECB in December, flooding the global financial sector with cheap liquidity, may be reaching at least a temporary halt. With first quarter earnings season in full swing, questions about global economic growth, and recurring worries about Spain’s debt sustainability, market participants appear to be taking money off the table.

 

The NASDAQ futures, basis the June futures (NDM12) bull market surge has taken the index from a low in October 2011 around 2031 too an intraday high on April, 03 2012 of 2791 a 26 percent gain in the futures. The market has since sustained a small pullback, which appears to have further to go. Although some momentum studies are showing signs of an oversold condition it appears NDM12 may need to get closer to the 2600 area before traders become more comfortable with taking a shot at the long side.