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Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures

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Free in-depth analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures market written by a professional Dow Jones trader.

January 14, 2013

Stock Index Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.

The Dow Jones Mini Future (YMH13) traded in a fairly lax luster fashion today, with limited news for market participants to trade off of. Throughout the rest of the week traders will have several significant economic data points to trade around along with a number of earnings reports from companies included in the Dow.

 

Over the next four days traders will have to sift through economic data covering several segments of the US economy. Tuesday’s data includes Retail Sales, the Producer Price Index (PPI), and Business Inventories; followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, on Wednesday. The week will close out with Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the Philadelphia FED Index, on Thursday, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data on Friday.

 

On the earnings front, several corporations included in the Dow will report their fourth quarter results. The companies cover the industrial, technology and financial services sectors. JP Morgan (JPM) will report Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BA) and Intel (INTC) on Thursday, and General Electric (GE) on Friday. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup’s (C) will also be reporting Wednesday and Thursday respectively, but neither bank is included in the Dow.

 

YMH13 is strongly overbought based on several short term momentum studies. Intermediate term studies are moving into a similar condition. Several market sentiment indicators appear to point to a general sense of complacency by stock investors. YMH13 may be setting it self up for a pullback over the next several weeks leading up to the debt ceiling negotiations regardless of the outcome. Over the near term support for the market may come in at 13282-13400 and then 13150-13220. Initial resistance may come in at 13500-13550 and if a blow off top occurs, it may take more patient sellers to show up at 13650-13710.

December 02, 2012

Dow Jones Index Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.

Over the next several weeks the stock market, basis the December Dow Jones Contract (YMZ12) will be moved by several significant economic releases next week; the Federal Reserves Monetary Policy meeting (FOMC) the following week, starting December 11, 2012; and the ongoing Fiscal Cliff Drama playing out between President Obama and Congressional leaders throughout this month. Many traders believe that the economic statistics released during the week may be affected by Hurricane Sandy and any weakness will possibly be ignored.

The first tier data releases will start Monday with Markit’s Purchasing Managers Index, the Institute of Supply Managers Manufacturing Index(ISM) along with Construction spending. On Wednesday the ISM Non Manufacturing Index will be released along with the ADP Employment Report to be followed Friday with the Nonfarm Payroll statistics, Unemployment data and Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment data.

 

The following week investors will be looking to December 12, 2012 when the FOMC’s meeting raps up. Traders will be searching for any insights about how the Federal Reserve (FED) plans to deal with the possible termination of  Operation Twist, at the end of the this month. If Operation Twist is not extended and/or the FED does not hint at another form of liquidity injection for Wall Street, YMZ12 would probably react poorly.   

 

The rally in YMZ12 over the past ten days, after its eight and half percent drop in the prior nine week period, has put the index in a somewhat overbought condition based on short term momentum studies. The market may be setup for a bit of a pullback due to some of the fundamental uncertainty and the overbought short term technicals. Initial resistance could come in at 13062-13123 and further resistance could come in at 13154-13225. Initial support could appear 12750-12850 and then 12590-12672.

February 16, 2012
Stock Index Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.

Stock market investors are watching both economic data releases and first quarter earnings for corporate America. Firms reporting earnings this week include technology, manufacturing and banking entities giving investors a good view of major economic segments within the US and global economy. The firms include BAC, INTC, MSFT, GS MS and GE. Economic data released in the US today were mixed with retail sales surprising to the upside and the NAHB housing index along with the New York Empire manufacturing index coming in weaker than market expectations. Investors' concerns over the renewed debt problems in Spain seemed to subside temporarily as the Euro showed strength during the European and US day.

Over the past four days the Dow Jones future, basis the June contract (DJM12) has traded with a slight bias to the upside, after its six day pullback at the beginning of April. DJM12 closed today on the plus side and in the middle of its daily range. The price action so far in April appears to be corrective in nature and no technical damage has been done to the uptrend, which started in October. The market appears to be stuck in a range with initial resistance at 12950 and then 13235 and support at 12730 and 12630. The market over the last several months has come a long way to the upside and a further pullback over the next several weeks towards the 12200 to 12400 area would not be surprising, but the action will be somewhat data dependent.