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Commodities, Inc. Research Department. Please view our Risk Disclaimer. Free in-depth analysis of the Australian Dollar futures market written by a professional Australian
Commodity trading is not suitable for everyone. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Van Commodities, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Van Commodities, Inc. Research Department. Please view our Risk Disclaimer.
Free in-depth analysis of the Australian Dollar futures market written by a professional Australian Dollar trader.
April 14, 2013
Australian Dollar Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.
The Australian Dollar future (A6M13) started to pullback on April 11 on profit taking, after hitting an intraday high of 1.0531. The currency accelerated its sell off today on the back of weaker than expected Chinese GDP data.
Several analysts are starting to factor in the possibility that the Chinese government will try to restrain loan growth and property speculation leading to downside risks for China’s economy, Australia’s largest trading partner. The potential for monetary policy changes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), at their next meeting May 7, to offset weak economic growth due to a reduction in trade with China, may start to be factored into investor’s expectations for A6M13.
A6M13 became overbought last week as a result of its roughly five percent rally over the previous six weeks. Several momentum indicators have rolled over and would be supportive of further A6M13 selling. Initial resistance for A6M13 may come in at 1.0315-1.0353, with strong resistance at 1.0387-1.0421. Initial support may appear at 1.0225 and further support at 1.0060.
March 04, 2013
Australian Dollar Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.
The Australian Dollar future (A6H13) has dropped roughly four percent since January 11th when it hit an intraday high of 1.0547. A6H13 continued its multi week sell off today on news that China would introduce measures to dampen down property prices. The news led to expectations of reduced demand for Australia’s bulk commodities.
Tomorrow currency traders will be watching for any policy changes or biases from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meeting. Expectations are for the RBA to hold rates steady at three percent and to have a fairly positive view on the Australian economy.
A6H13 is oversold based on several momentum studies on a short term basis. The currency rallied in the last half of the US trading session in line with the US stock market rally at the end of the day. Over the near term A6H13 may find initial support at 1.0144 and further support at 1.0020. Initial resistance may come in at 1.0270-1.0325 with stronger selling at 1.0360-1.0415.
February 5, 2013
Australian Dollar Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
The Australian dollar future (A6H13) continues to trade in a five cent range at 1.0050-1.0550. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept cash rates unchanged today at 3.0 percent, but stated that they had room for further monetary accommodation if needed to support demand. It appears traders concentrated on the dovish portion of the RBA’s statement and sold the currency off in the overnight hours. A6H13 traded off its lows later in the day as the US stock market rallied and the risk on trade supported the currency into the US close. Data on the Australian economy for traders to key off of during the rest of the week include; Retail Sales and the AIG Construction Index on Wednesday, and Employment and Unemployment levels on Thursday.
A6H13 trades a little bit heavily and appears to have some downside risk. Initial resistance may come in at 1.0415-1.0460 and further resistance at 1.0500-1.0550. Initial support may come in at 1.0285 and further support at 1.0150.
January 3, 2013
Australian Dollar Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.
Risk assets pulled back in the afternoon after the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from their last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting December 11, 2013. The Australian Dollar front month future (ADH13) came into the US trading session at the top end of the days range and profit taking accelerated after the release of the FOMC minutes. ADH13 had rallied close to two percent over the past five trading days and the pullback today ahead of US Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment statistics may just be a bought of profit taking.
ADH13 is trading in a fairly large trading range of .9600-1.0800 on an intermediate term basis. Over a shorter time frame the range appears to be 1.0100-1.0800. ADH13 may find near term support at 1.0360-1.0400; if that does not find enough buying pressure further support may come in at 1.0275-1.0335. Initial resistance may come in at 1.0540-1.0600 and then 1.0613-1.0625.
April 11, 2012
Currency Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
The factors behind the sharp drop in the in the Australian dollar against the US dollar over the past three weeks are several and consist of the following issues: Renewed nervousness over the stability of the eurozone and the ability of Spain and Italy to implement their tough fiscal programs, and the implications for future growth and debt to GDP ratios if they do fully implement the proposed austerity measures; the targeted reduction in China’s growth rate, by policy makers, and the shift in government policy away from large infrastructure projects toward greater consumer related consumption; and worries over the sustainability of US economic growth.
The Australian dollar is viewed as a commodity based currency and the possibility of slowing global economic growth has implications for the Australian economy and the currency. Market participants will continue to watch economic data releases around the globe and especially those out of China, to gauge the potential for growth or a worldwide economic slowdown.
The Australian dollar futures, basis the June contract (ADM12) is oversold based on several momentum studies and the currency found good support at its 200DMA. The currency had a reversal day and closed at the top end of its daily range today, April 11, 2012. If the currency takes out the 1.0280-10300 area a move towards 1.0450 seems attainable.